The Robert Schuman Foundation and the INHES (Institute for Higher Security and Justice Studies) are organising a seminar entitled "Le smart power: une voie pour l'Europe?" on 24th January. Leading personalities from the academic, political and diplomatic world will be taking part in the debate. It is obligatory to enrol.

On 22nd January, 4.2 million Croats are being called to answer "yes" or "no" to the following question during a referendum: "Do you agree to Croatia becoming a member of the European Union?" According to the most recent poll undertaken by the CRO-Demoskop Institute, 55.1% of Croats are about to vote in support of their country joining the EU, one third (33%) are due to vote against. One Croat in ten (11.6%) say they have not decided.

According to forecasts published on 10th January by the Bank of Portugal the Portuguese economy is due "almost to stagnate" in 2013 with growth limited to 0.3% of the GDP. The Central Bank is forecasting recession of 3.1% of the GDP this year, especially because of the impact of the austerity measures planned for in the State budget.

European Commissioner for Enlargement, Stefan Füle met the Croatian and Slovenian Foreign Ministers on 10th January to settle the old border conflict between the two countries. Mr Füle believes that talks about the next steps to take were very useful and constructive. The countries agree to form an arbitration tribunal comprising five experts. Each country will individually appoint a member to the tribunal. The Chair of the Tribunal and the other two members are to be chosen jointly by Croatia and Slovenia from a list of 15 candidates established by the European Commission. If the countries cannot agree then the Commission will appoint the three remaining experts.

This week important negotiations took place in view of the drafting of the treaty on reinforced economic Union. In a joint press release on 11th January the MEPs who are in charge of the negotiations said that the provisional version put forward by the Member States was unacceptable as it stood. Elmar Brok (EPP, Germany), Roberto Gualtieri (S&D, Italy), Guy Verhofstadt (ALDE, Belgium) and Daniel Cohn-Bendit (Greens/EFO, France) notably criticised the procedures that had been drafted - which they believe would not be in line with the European treaties and secondary community law. They also denounced the exclusion of the community method and other European institutions, notably the European Parliament, which would not be able to exercise democratic control. A compromise seems to have been found, even though there is still doubt about the Commission's role and its prerogatives in terms of national budgetary supervision. Finance Ministers are due to discuss the final text at the end of the month.

On 16th January, the President of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy, travelled to Rome to meet the President of the Italian Council, Mario Monti. They spoke of the economic and financial crisis in the EU, the Italian austerity plan set in place to reassure the financial markets and the response the EU is due to put forward on 30th January to revive growth.

The number of financial establishments in the euro zone declined by 4% in 2011 in comparison with 2010, according to statistics published on 16th January by the European Central Bank. In all the euro zone comprised 7,533 banks on January 1st 2012 ie 332 less than on January 1st 2011. The greatest percentage decline was seen in Ireland (-15%), followed by Luxembourg (-8%), Cyprus (-6%), France (-5%) and Greece (-5%). In numbers of institutes Ireland still leads with 106 lost banks followed by France (59), Luxembourg (48), and Germany (43). As a whole the European Union lost 332 financial institutions last year. In all 9,587 institutions are still at work in the EU.

On 11th January the President of the Italian Council Mario Monti met the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel in Berlin to discuss the future of the euro zone. During a joint press conference Ms Merkel expressed her "greatest respect" for the rapidity of the reforms that were taking place in Italy, whilst Mr Monti lauded German budgetary discipline. Moreover Mr Monti announced that he would present a wide ranging reform programme to bring greater deregulation to his country, and asked the European Union to reduce the interest rates on the Italian debt. He also pleaded for greater intervention on the part of the European Central Bank in terms of eurobonds and a strengthening of the EFSF. The two leaders will meet again on 20th January.

The Cypriot and Turkish leaders of Cyprus, the Cypriot President Demetris Christofias and the Turkish leader of the northern part of the island, Dervis Eroglu, spoke together in Nicosia on 9th January prior to discussions that are planned for the end of January with the aim of reunifying the island. "They spoke of their next meeting on the occasion of the fifth tripartite summit with the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon which will take place on 22nd to 24th January in New York," announced the UN spokesperson Martin Nesirky, during press conference.

The international panel that has been asked to settle disputes over complex financial issues opened its doors on 16th January in The Hague. "This panel will help settle differences involving complex financial issues," declared Jeffrey Golden, professor at the London School of Economics and chairman of the board of the foundation P.R.I.M.E. Finance created notably to host the panel.

Since 10th January the battle over the referendum on the independence of Scotland by 2014 is growing in ferocity and may degenerate into a constitutional crisis in the UK. British Prime Minister David Cameron wants to organise a referendum with regard to the country staying in the UK within the next 18 months. However the central government in London and the regional authorities in Edinburgh disagree on nearly everything: the timing, the electoral body, the terms and even on the question that is to be submitted to the 5 million Scots who have belonged to the crown of England since 1707. To date the Scottish Parliament has competence with regard to education, healthcare, environment and justice but Foreign Affairs and Defence lie in the realm of the British government.

On 11th January the Slovenian parliament refused to approve the appointment of Zoran Jankovic as Prime Minister. After his surprise success in the general elections on 4th December, Zoran Jankovic was appointed Prime Minister on 5th January by President Danilo Turk. During the vote at the National Assembly 42 MPs voted in support, 43 abstained and 1 voted against - 4 votes were invalidated. The Slovenian President regretted the way the vote had taken place. Now the parties which sit in Parliament and the Slovenian President have 14 days to put a new candidate forward.

The Bosnian Parliament invested Vjekoslav Bevanda , member of the main political party of the Croats of Bosnia (HDZ) as Prime Minister on 12th January. An expert in finance and a former banker he recently said "I shall try to bring the economy beyond the petty political quarrels, hoping that this will be the gesture that will push the others to do the same."

The Chairman of the National Swiss Bank, Philipp Hildebrand announced on 9th January that he was resigning "immediately". This decision follows a scandal that broke last month with the revelation that his wife had undertaken private financial transactions in August 2011, just before a reduction in the rate of the Swiss franc. Although he was cleared after an inquiry made by the bank, Mr Hildebrand declared during a press conference that he was unable to prove that the transaction had been made without his knowledge and that he would withdraw in order to protect the Central Bank's credibility. Whilst his successor is being appointed the interim is being ensured by the establishment's Vice-President Thomas Jordan.

According to figures published by Eurostat on 13th January the euro zone recorded a trade surplus of 6.9 billion euros in November 2011, clearly up over one year, thanks to an increase in exports and a stabilisation of imports. The EU did however record a deficit of 7.2 billion euros, which is much less than a year ago when it totalled 16.8 billion. The surplus increased with the USA, Switzerland and Turkey and the deficit declined with China and Japan, but not with Russia and Norway. Germany is the country with the highest trade surplus, whilst the UK and France face trade deficits of over 70 billion euros.

Eurobarometer published a study on 13th January on active ageing, analysing the results obtained in a survey undertaken from September to November 2011. Europeans believe that we cease to be considered young as of 42 and that we become elderly after 64. More than 40% of those interviewed are concerned about the ageing population, but most believe that society is ready to face the challenge. 53% of those interviewed are against an obligatory retirement age and more than 70% would like to continue their professional activities once the minimal retirement age has been reached. Finally the survey highlights the commitment and the acknowledgement of the elderly person's commitment to the benefit of society as they undertake volunteer work, join associations and involve themselves in politics.

The Military School's Strategic Research Institute (IRSEM) has published an overview of European Defence after the Lisbon Treaty under the management of General Jean-Paul Perruche. This study is called "L'Europe de la Défense post-Lisbonne: illusion ou défi?" Since the treaty the debate over European Defence has been lively, ranging from being "a dangerous illusion" for some and "the future of Europe" for others. The IRSEM research team attempts to answer this dual question : Is European Defence necessary to defend Europe? Is it a credible and achievable project?

Karthala publishing has released a book by Jean-François Drevet on Cyprus. This EU Member State, 37% of whose territory is occupied by a third country which has imposed its army, its currency and inhabitants, finds itself in an extremely specific position. As the meeting planned for 22nd and 24th January in New York is about to take place, this book reviews the disputes between Cyprus and Turkey. The author explains the development of the problem since 1999, notably the drafting of the Annan Plan and the reasons for its failure.

Until 20th April the National Gallery of Ancient Art, which is in the Barberini Palace in Rome, is devoting a major exhibition to the genius of Francesco Barbieri, otherwise known as, Guercino - an Italian 17th century baroque painter. The exhibition, which also pays tribute to Sir Denis Mahon, brings many works together from the museums of Rome and Cento.