Just one week before the election the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) led by Chancellor Angela Merkel retains its lead over its main adversary, the SPD, represented by Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Foreign Minister. However in an unstable, changing political landscape the game is still open. In 2002 Gerhard Schröder (SPD) narrowly beat Edmund Stoiber (CDU) and in 2005, less than one point (0.9) separated the CDU from the SPD whilst the CDU had held a comfortable lead just one month before the election. It remains to be seen whether the CDU can form a new coalition with the FDP or whether it will resign itself to the re-election of the "grand coalition" with the SPD.

The ruling Socialist Party which lay ahead in the polls for a long time, fell behind the Social Democratic Party over the summer and notably after the European elections on 7th June 2009. Just one week before the election the result is more uncertain than ever since the Socialists recently started to rise in popularity again snatching back the lead in voting intentions. According to the latest poll by Marktest for the daily Diario Economico and radio TSF the PS is said to be ahead with 37.7% of voting intentions against 32.4% for the PSD. The Left Bloc is due to come third with 16.2% followed by the Communist Party-Green coalition, 6.9% and the People's Party (PP), 5.2%.

Jean-Dominique Giuliani, chairman of the Robert Schuman Foundation published an editorial on his site entitled "Europe makes its late entry into the 21st century!" He looks into the EU's new institutional order: new Parliament, new Commission, new treaty if the Irish ratify the Lisbon Treaty by referendum on 2nd October. He mentions the major challenges the EU has to face and pleads in favour of political Union.

The French Institute for International Relations (IFRI) is organising a lunch/debate on 22nd September as part of "IFRI Tuesdays in Brussels", will be introduced by Michel Foucher, geographer and diplomat, professor at the Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris and member of the Scientific Council of the Robert Schuman Foundation.

The Robert Schuman Foundation together with the Constantin Caramanlis Institue for Democracy (Greece) and the Centre for European Studies (Brussels) are organising a conference entitled "Vital progress for the European Defence Policy" on 24th September at the Ecole Militaire in Paris, under the High Patronage of Nicolas Sarkozy, President of the French Republic and French Defence Minister Hervé Morin and French Secretary of State for European Affairs, Pierre Lellouche.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown travelled to Paris on 16th September to meet French President Nicolas Sarkozy. The two leaders said that their countries were going to work together to enable economic recovery and to come to an agreement at the G20 on a long term strategy for sustainable growth. The two men also discussed goals relative to climate change that they will put forward at the Copenhagen summit in December. The meeting took place just before the extraordinary European Council in Brussels and one week before the G20 summit in Pittsburgh.

On 15th September British Prime Minister Gordon Brown delivered a speech to the Trade Union Congress(TUC) in Liverpool. He admitted that he was planning to make cuts in public budgets but that would not affect the services "qualified" as vital such as education or healthcare. It is the first time that the Prime Minister admitted to cuts such as these; previously other eminent government members had spoken of "difficult choices" to be made in terms of the budget to reduce public deficit that has risen to 12% of the GDP because of the crisis. Just months before the general elections that are to take place no later than June 2010 Gordon Brown, whose Labour Party is lagging behind in the polls has clearly positioned himself in view of the elections.

On 17th September the 27 heads of state and government of the EU discussed the common European position to adopt so that they stand united at the G20 summit in Pittsburgh. They insisted on the continued work to provide in view of re-establishing the world economy that is sorely affected by the crisis. They insisted on the vital coordination of strategies to emerge from the crisis on the part of the Member States. Emphasis was placed on the need to promote access to employment and social cohesion. They notably insisted on the improvement of financial supervision and the need for cooperation between the regulation authorities in the various countries. Finally with regard to remuneration they want to foster responsible practice but did not speak of a ceiling, but a limit on remuneration and bonuses.

On 17th and 18th September the 27 European Affairs Ministers discussed the "Union's Strategy for the Baltic Sea". The strategy covers several areas, notably environmental, as well as the region's competitiveness, scientific cooperation, transport, energy and security issues.

On 17th September MEPs adopted a resolution demanding that bank data be collated only to counter terrorism whilst requesting the maintenance of a fair balance between security measures and the protection of civil liberties. Under pressure on the part of the European Parliament the Council agreed to re-open negotiations next year with the American authorities on the transfer of European citizens' banking data via the SWIFT financial network. The Vice-President of the Commission for the Area of Justice, Freedom and Security, Jacques Barrot said that "an immediate renegotiation under Lisbon Treaty rules" would be held if the treaty is adopted. Parliament would then have the last word on the new agreement.

On 17th September MEPs adopted a resolution in which they ask the European Commission to increase efforts to prevent future inbalance in terms of energy security and for it to review the early warning mechanisms which turned out to be ineffective during the Russian-Ukrainian gas crisis. Moreover they suggest the development of European capacity to stock gas and to improve interconnections. They repeated their appeal for a common external energy security policy and asked the Commission not to sacrifice the protection of Human Rights on the altar of a safe energy policy during negotiations at the next EU/Russia summit.

On 17th September MEPs approved the extension of subventions for the purchase of butter and powdered skimmed milk until February next year. They called on the European Commission to step up action to settle problems mid and long term in the dairy sector. To this end the Commission is looking into the possibility of implementing the EU dairy fund to a total of 600 million euros to help manufacturers'organisations and to modernise agricultural establishments. The European Commissioner for Agriculture, Mariann Fischer Boel announced that additional aid for the sector, notably temporary aid to a total of 15,000 euros for farmers and the implementation of an emergency clause to provide a quicker response in the event of disruption on the market. With regard to this the Robert Schuman Foundation recently published a study on "Europe and the Milk Crisis: what regulations should be adopted for the dairy sector?"

The delegations that enable dialogue with their counterparts in the national and regional parliaments of the non-EU member countries have started to elect their chairs and deputy chairs. 17 of the 40 delegations included in the European Parliament held their constituent meetings on 16th and 17th September. The other delegations such as the new Multilateral Assembly with the countries of the eastern partnership (Euronest) and the Euromed Assembly are due to elect their chairs on 29th and 30th September together with those of China, India, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Iran and Iraq.

On 15th the European Commission adopted a strategy document to help Member States to fight effectively against the H1NI influenza pandemic. They insisted on the importance of cooperation between Member States to limit the effect of the pandemic as well as on the role played by the Commission which will take on the monitoring of coordination across Europe. The vaccine is the cornerstone of the Union's strategy hence the Commission's reason for focusing on the development of vaccines and on the way to enable access by all Member States and all citizens. Each Member State will have the right to use its own vaccination campaign individually but the Commission will only allow vaccination after an in depth opinion has been delivered by scientists on the vaccine and its secondary effects. Finally the Commission is also insisting on the importance of informing the public with regard to the preventive measures to take and on solidarity towards third countries.

On 16th September the European Commission issued a proposal aiming to modify legislation with regard to visas in the Balkans. The Schengen Area that rallies 25 countries in a vast borderless area demands a visa on the part of any inhabitant that wants to enter it. This would no longer be the case for the citizens of Serbia, Montenegro and Macedonia who stay for a short period and who have biometric passports if the Commission's proposal is approved.

On 17th September the European Commission adopted Guidelines on the application of EC Treaty state aid rules to the public funding of broadband networks. The Guidelines also contain specific provisions concerning the deployment of Next Generation Access networks, allowing public support to foster investment in this strategic sector without creating undue distortions of competition. The Guidelines outline the distinction between competitive areas ("black" areas), where no state aid is necessary and unprofitable or underserved areas ("white" and "grey" areas) in which state aid may be justified, if certain conditions are met.

On 17th September the European Commissioner for Agriculture and Rural Development, Mariann Fischer-Boel unveiled the details of the European campaign during a visit to help producers emerge from the dairy crisis. The series of measures is counting on initiatives that aim at both the short and long term, notably including temporary aid of 15,000 euros for farmers. The commissioner is also suggesting an emergency clause covering the entire dairy sector to enable a quicker response in the event of disruptions on the market. She is planning for the formation of a group of experts responsible for the examination of contractual relations between farmers and the dairy industry in view of a report on the foodchain and the dairy sector.

In view of the G20 summit in Pittsburgh French Prime Minister François Fillon met Russian President Dmitri Medvedev as well as Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in Yaroslav on 14th September. Discussions focused on the Franco-Russian partnership and on the constitution of a major economic and human area between Europe and Russia. This involves the enhancement of existing bilateral cooperation between France and Russia, the creation of a true partnership to confront the challenges of a globalised world as well as Russia's accession to the WTO.

Irish support for the Lisbon Treaty is rising with more than 50% of the electorate intending to vote in favour of the text to reform the European institutions in the second referendum planned for 2nd October. Voting intentions for the "yes" have risen by 6 points to 53% in two months according to the latest Millward Brown poll. But the "no" camp has also gained strength, at a slower place, rising to 26% whilst the undecided represent 21% of those interviewed.

The President of the Italian Council Silvio Berlusconi met his Romanian counterpart, Emil Boc, on 16th September. The two heads of government discussed the close relations their two countries have both from an economic and a social and cultural point of view. Emil Boc told his Italian counterpart of the Romanian government's desire to have a policy of zero tolerance with regard to criminality, highlighting that "crime has no nationality". The two heads of government finally decided to organise a second intergovernmental summit at the start of next year between Italy and Romania.

Jan Figel, European Commissioner for Education and Training was elected on 19th September as head of the Christian Democratic Movement (KDH) and will soon leave the European Commission. He indicated he wanted to concentrate on countering corruption. He added that he would abandon his position within the European Commission before the end of his mandate initially planned for 31st October.

NATO's Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen suggested on 18th November that NATO and Russia strengthen their cooperation in all areas and boost dialogue within the NATO/Russian Council.

According to Eurostat's initial estimates published on 17th September the euro area (16 countries) recorded a external trade surplus of 12.6 billion euros with the rest of the world in comparison with -3 billion in July 2008. In comparison with the month of June 2009 exports increased by 4.1% whilst imports decreased by 0.3%. With regard to the EU the surplus is said to be 0.7 billion euros, in comparison with -22.4 billion in July 2008. In July 2009 compared with June 2009 exports progressed by 3.3% whilst imports declined by 0.6%.

On 18th September Eurostat published its 2009 Yearbook 'Europe in Figures'. This yearbook contains a selection of over 500 pages of statistics held on record by Eurostat together with explanatory texts. It is an introductory text to the EU's statistics and is also a guide covering a wide range of free data on the internet. The yearbook offers an overview of the development in key trends in the EU, the euro area, the Member States, candidate countries, EFTA, the USA and Japan when they are available.

According to the ninth world report on wealth by the Boston Consulting Group, the world's wealth declined for the first time since 2001. After decreasing by 11.7% to 92 trillion euros it is due to recover growth in 2010 but this will be progressive.

The Department for Research on Modern Criminal Threats at the University Paris II has just published a Warning Paper entitled "Un fléau incontrôlé: le trafic de cigarettes en France et en Europe" (An uncontrolled scourge: cigarette trafficking in France and in Europe). The study reviews the dangers of this trafficking.

The German Society for Foreign Policy has just published a study entitled "Die Östliche Partnerschaft der EU-ein Kooperationsangebot mit Missverständnissen" (The EU's Eastern Partnership - an offer of cooperation full of misunderstandings). This Polish-Swedish initiative may fail before it has even truly started. In effect it is not one of Sweden's priorities which was the initiator however and the project does not receive all the attention it deserves; several countries are against the project, notably Russia. The Eastern Partnership is however vital for the EU's energy supplies and for its future ability to act.

From 26th September to 3rd October the third International Poetry Festival will take place in Paris on the them of "Mixités, diversités, dialogue des cultures et des civilisations"(Mix, diversity, dialogue between cultures and civilisations" as part of the foreign cultures week. Various activities are planned in several areas of Paris.

On 18th September the fifth edition of the Spanish Film Festival started in London. The best Spanish films of the year will be show at the Lumière cinema of the Institut français until 3rd October.

23rd September heralded the start of the 24th edition of the Romaeuropa festival; this has become the most important live arts festivals. This year it will focus on the theme of "Cultural Beat". As every year the programme is extremely varied and includes dance, theatre, modern visual arts and electronic music until 2nd December.

The Moderna Museum of Stockholm is launching an exhibition starting 19th September 2009 until 17th January 2010; it is devoted to Salvador Dali one of the 20th century's most popular artists. The museum is suggesting experimentation with the very format of the exhibition by integrating the work of modern artist, Italian Francesco Vezzoli who shares the taste for experiment with his predecessor together with the love of the art/media relationship.