The next Prime Minister: who is Mariano Rajoy?

Given this situation the Spanish again called on the People's Party, which is now led by Mariano Rajoy. A discreet, low-profile politician in spite of a sound education and remarkable experience, whom the ballot boxes granted the biggest centre-right majority in Spain since the restoration of democracy in 1977 [4]. Therefore within the next few days this Galician politician, who in his time became Spain's youngest property registrar [5], will take over the government, so culminating one of the most complete political careers in the country, which includes responsibilities on local, autonomous and national levels. He has served as a town councillor in Pontevedra (the capital of his home province), as chair of the county council of the same province (1983-1986); as MP and member of the Autonomous Government of Galicia (1986-1987), and as national MP from 1989 to the present. He was also a member of the government during José Maria Aznar's two terms in office (1996-2004); and has led the Opposition during Rodríguez Zapatero's period (2004-2011). As a Minister, he successively took care of the portfolios of the civil service, education, interior and the presidency, and in various times he was the government's spokesperson, as well as being its deputy leader. Moreover, he has also been the Deputy Secretary General of the People's Party (2003-2004), which he leads from 2004.

In the light of this career, it is not surprising therefore that Mariano Rajoy qualifies himself as a "predictable" man, and that this very concept occupies a major position in his electoral programme; indeed this won the support of the majority of Spanish society, especially with regard to European issues and economic policy. Great emphasis is placed on the need for Spain to become a "reliable and dependable" player again in the international arena and for it to undertake an economic reform programme that will make its position ""predictable" [6]. We might then legitimately consider that the new government will adopt the principles established during the "Aznar era" placing specific emphasis on the need to guarantee economic stability.

This is why it might be useful to recall what José Maria Aznar declared in 2003, as leader of the Spanish government, to participants in the summer universities of the European Ideas Network, which met at the Escorial (Madrid): "We (the Spanish) love the German culture of stability so much that we have made it ours. And this is very positive for a country like Spain which a few years ago was -quite rightly – suspected of generating a great deal of economic instability ...." This explains why, in this difficult period, he maintained that the "Stability Pact was one of the foundations of European growth" and that he "supported the introduction of new concepts into the European social model, such as budgetary balance." [7].

Undeniably then it seems that the new government's policy will make "predictability" and economic, international stability, its priority. The first steps taken by the "popular" leader seem to confirm this trend, although this has not been firmly included in a government programme yet.

Indeed one of the features of the Spanish institutional system is that it envisages excessively long delays in the formation of the new government after the elections. Although on 20th November it was clear that the People's Party had won the absolute majority, the new Chambers have met only on 13th December and only afterwards – probably on 19th December- the Chamber of Deputies will hold a session during which it will debate – and possibly approve- the programme put forward by the King's candidate to the presidency of the government in view of the electoral results.

And so today it is still impossible to define the government's programme which the Spanish Parliament will have to approve. However we might note several important details which point to Spain's absolute priority in its commitment to the ongoing European integration process.

The government programme: the EU as a priority

It is no coincidence either that in the last chapter, devoted to the foreign policy, it is stated quite literally that "the European Union is the People's Party's vocation"; quite logically it is added that "we shall make policy towards the European Union the priority in our external activities"; to do this "we shall encourage greater economic coordination in Europe, we shall improve the euro zone's governance criteria and we shall foster economic integration." All of this is reflected in more or less concrete commitments such as "defending the strict respect of the Stability and Growth Pact in European economic governance", "support the consolidation of European banks, the completion of the internal financial services market and progress towards truly integrated supervision," and even "assume an active role in the implementation of the Europe 2020 strategy which is laying the foundations of competitiveness and employment in Spain and Europe" [9].

In conclusion all of the available information seems to indicate that for the new Spanish government, the strict respect of commitments taken out with the European Union will comprise an absolute priority. It will be difficult for the main party of the parliamentary opposition, which supported the government that assumed those commitments, to challenge these. Particularly, when the next executive will count on the support of most of the local and autonomous governments, also won by the People's Party in the local and regional elections last May.